EURUSD Daily Forecast: November 25

EURUSD Forecast The EURUSD attempted to push higher yesterday, topped at 1.3410 but whipsawed to the downside, closed at 1.3328 and hit 1.3302 earlier today in Asian session. This fact keeps the bearish outlook remains strong. The bias remains bearish in nearest term still testing 1.3250 – 1.3145 area. Immediate resistance remains around 1.3420. A clear break above that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term but any upside pullback now is normal and only a clear break and daily close above 1.3590 – 1.3613 could stop the current strong bearish intraday outlook.

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US Market Update: Dow +50 S&P +3.5 NASDAQ -1

***Economic Data***
– (AR) Argentina Oct Budget Balance: No est v 449.0M prior
– (CL) Chile Q3 Gross Domestic Product Y/Y: 4.8% v 4.8%e; Current Account: -2.9B v -$1.4Be
– (CA) Canada Oct Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 2.9% v 2.8%e; Consumer Price Index: 120.8 v 120.6 prior
– (CA) Canada Oct CPI Core M/M: 0.3% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 2.1% v 1.9%e
– (BR) Brazil Oct CAGED Formal Job Creation: 123.1K v 167.2Ke
– (PD) Poland Oct Employment M/M: -0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 2.5% v 2.5%e
– (PD) Poland Oct Avg Gross Wages M/M: 1.0% v 1.1%e; Y/Y: 5.1% v 5.3%e
– (CA) Canada Oct Leading Indicators M/M: 0.2% v 0.1%e
– (BE) Belgium Nov Consumer Confidence: -14 v -7 prior
– (US) Oct Leading Indicators: 0.9% v 0.6%e

– Trading in US equity markets has been choppy but up slightly this morning after two sessions of worrying declines on events in Europe. Read more…

Loonie (CAD) Rallies On Higher CPI Data!

The Canadian dollar is higher this morning as CPI data came in hotter than expected with Core inflation coming in at 2.1% vs. an expected 1.9% and the Headline figure at 2.9% vs. 2.8% expectation.  While these figures are lower than last month, it should be noted that markets are foward-looking and the idea that prices would come down further means that there may be some room for further strength.

Thats not to say that we think the Bank of Canada will be raising interest rates any time soon, but rather they will be on high alert for higher inflation that may harm the economy. 

Another important feature of the Loonie is that it has a high correlation with the price of oil so with oil just below $100/barrel, it makes sense that the Loonie would strengthen.  From the chart below, you can see that 1.03 acted as rock-solid resistance, with the next move expected to go back to parity vs. USD

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Trades Executed on October 27, 2011

Trades Placed by optionFair

EUR/USD

Based on Doug’s analysis of the EUR/USD, The EUR continues to remain bullish which creates an investment opportunity in the following positions: “High” or “Above”, “Touch” or “No Touch Down” on the EUR/USD. With optionFair™ binary options trading platform, I traded $1,000 on the “Touch” instrument. This kind of option has a return of 77% if the option touches the strike price prior to expiry, which means that if the signal is correct, I could get a return of $770 on my investment. The market price for EUR/USD at the buying time (12:10) was 1.40072 and the target price was 1.40152. The EUR/USD price hit t

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Forex: Euro Rallies On Italy Vote, Sterling Threatened By BoE Report

Euro: Italy Votes For More Austerity, ECB To Ease Policy Further

The Euro advanced to a high of 1.3667 as Italy’s Senate voted 156 to 12 in favor of the new austerity measures, and the single-currency may continue to recoup the losses from earlier this week as Europe takes additional steps to get its house in order. However, the political shift in Italy may certainly come under increased scrutiny as Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi is expect to step down following a final vote from the Chamber of Deputies, and the single-currency may face additional headwinds heading into the following week as the fundamental outlook for the euro-area remains clouded with high uncertainty.

Meanwhile, European Central Bank board member Ewald Nowotny struck a dovish tone during an interview with Reuters and argued that the Governing Council should consider more decisive policy action as it has a responsibility to help stimulate the economy. A

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