On CNBC Talking USD, EUR and Favorite Trade
I was on CNBC this afternoon with Maria Bartiromo talking about the outlook for the USD, EUR and my favorite trade
EUR/GBP On the Move Up
The EUR/GBP is definitely in a bullish state since yesterday. Taking a quick peak at the weekly chart it is evident that this pair had breached, retested and is now heading up and out of the price trap I had it in. Stochastic is pointing up and the 5 ema is giving price a lift.
On the daily chart we have some resistance in the form of the 55 and 144 emas just above price with a stochastic pointing down. I can readjust my trend lines and when doing so it forms a perfect price channel on this daily chart.
If that is the case, and this becomes a respected channel then the 55 and 144 ema could force price down. These emas are around 0.8730 area. Moving on to my 4 hour chart as well as my monthly pivot chart price as broken the 233 ema and is now retesting it and the upper Bollinger band is open and pointing up.
The nearest monthly pivot below price is the R1 at 0.8697 and the M4 is at 0.8751 with last months high at 0.8745. Moving forward to the hourly chart as well as my weekly pivot chart price has breached and retested the weekly central pivot at 0.8721 and price is riding the 5 ema.
The 5 ema is sharply pointing up and has already crossed through the 233 ema. The upper Bollinger band is open and sharply pointing up as well. Stochastic is also in the trade zone and pointing up.
Finally, on the 15 minute chart as well as the daily pivot chart price has already broken above yesterdays high, retested and bounced off the 13 ema and is heading up. The closest pviot below price is the M3 at 0.8713 and above is the R1 at 0.8726 with yesterdays high at 0.8721.
On the GBP/CHF chart price is very range bound and on the EUR/CHF chart price is trending up so without a doubt, until proven otherwise, my bias for this pair is bullish.
December 6th, 2011 in
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European Market Update: Markets digest the EU Leader Summit agreements
***Economic Data***
– (EU) ECB: €8.0B borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. €9.4B prior; €310.1B parked in deposit facility vs. €324.5B prior
– (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e Dec 5th: 6.45T v 6.47T prior
– (FI) Finland Oct Industrial Production M/M: -1.2% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: -.57% v -0.8%e
– (GE) Germany Current Account: €10.3B v €14.0Be; Trade Balance: €11.6 v €15.0Be; Exports M/M: -3.6% v -1.3%e ; Imports M/M: -1.0% v +0.3%e
– (GE) Germany Nov Final Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.4%e
– (GE) Germany Nov Final Consumer Price CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 2.8% v 2.8%e
– (GE) Germany Q3 Labor Costs Q/Q: -0.9% v 1.3% prior; Y/Y: 2.9% v 4.0% prior
– (FR) France Oct Industrial Production M/M: 0.0% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.8% v 2.8%e
– (FR) France Oct Manufacturing Production M/M: 0.0% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.6% v 3.5%e
– (FR) France Oct Central Govt. Balance: -€99.4 Read more…
December 6th, 2011 in
Forex News |
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Dollar Shrugs off NFPs, Critical Time for Risk Trends Ahead
The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index closed out its first weekly decline in three weeks as risk appetite posted an impressive climb over the same period. Just as with this past week, where the greenback heads moving forward is not a consideration of the currency’s own fundamentals. The dollar remains tapped into the underlying currents in market-wide investor sentiment and capital allocation. In other words, where goes risk appetite, the world’s reserve will move in the opposite direction.
That said, it is important to assess the quality of the impressive bull run for risk trends that prevailed last week. As my colleague Christopher Vecchio noted in the Real Time News feed, the S&P 500 enjoyed its 10th largest weekly run since 1950 following the worst Thanksgiving-week performance going back to 1932 all while the VIX Volatility Index held below the 30 percent mark that has more or less represented the floor for the activity gauge over the past three months. Thi Read more…
December 4th, 2011 in
Forex News | tags: Ahead, Risk Trends, Risk Trends Ahead, Trends Ahead |
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A new government – and new hopes for Spain?
When the Spanish public went to the polls to elect a new government on Sunday 20th November, they had one hope in common – that whatever the outcome there would be a decisive victory. A hung Parliament could have resulted in a disastrous future for the country, with politicians fighting amongst themselves and blocking legislation prepared by the opposing party.
In the event, the Partido Popular won a landslide victory, so the worst-case scenario quoted by professional and amateur political pundits was thankfully avoided. The focus of the local, national and international press has now turned to Spain’s future under the management of Mariano Rajoy and the PP.
One of the most pressing issues facing Sr. Rajoy and his ministers is selling Spain to the rest of the world. In
Daily Chart Art – November 25, 2011
GBP/JPY: 1-hour
For those lookin’ for a quick day trade, check out this setup on GBP/JPY! Looking at the 1-hour chart, we see that Guppy has been swimming in a descending channel on the charts. If you’re feeling bearish for the pair, keep tabs on the area around 120.00 which lines up nicely with the top of the channel. If resistance there holds, we could see the pair trade lower and test the bottom of the channel around 119.30. However, if it doesn’t, GBP/JPY could rally all the way up to 120.50.
USD/CHF: 1-hour
Now let’s check out USD/CHF on the 1-hour timeframe sporting what looks like an ascending triangle. If you’ve read the awesome School of Pipsology, you probably know that this is usually taken as a bullish chart pattern.