Short and Longer Term Intraday USD/CHF Swing Entries
The USD/CHF has been trending higher on the short-term 15 minute intraday time frame. Based upon the mark up cycle on this chart I have been setting up correction buy entries on pullbacks. This strategy is what I call swing trading and is valid only in trending markets. It is my belief that while the overall or longer-term trend on not only the 240-minute time frame but also the daily has been down, the Friday short term, intraday correction in the USD/CHF has allowed for near-term bullishness and can be bought into.
Note the circled sections on the chart below.
*Results are not guaranteed, individual experiences may vary. Past performance is not indicative of future results
To the left you will see the prior resistance that began stacking up below the 1.0600 level and to the right notice that prices are nearing this prior exhaustion level. By studying past price action, we can see what a likely scenario will be when prices reach this area once again. For me, this is more than just the ceiling but rather a level that could slow the uptrend and even transition the 15-minute USD/CHF uptrend to either a flat market going into the weekend or even possibly a trend reversal if prices are able to move lower through 1.0550 – which is also a major psychological level and the bottom line of the 34EMA Wave.
The next chart shows the 240-minute downtrend which is confirmed by the 4 to 6 o’clock Wave angle. The mark down cycle on this time frame I believe is best capitalized on by shorting into a correction. Personally, these corrections are identified by the resistance of the 34 period exponential moving average on the low.
The succession of 15-minute swing buys are leading into the longer-term 240-minute swing short and is a “one thing leads to another” set up.
*Results are not guaranteed, individual experiences may vary. Past performance is not indicative of future results
In my opinion, one of the most important aspects of a “one thing leads to another set up” is that the shorter term time frame be thought of as the “building blocks” of the longer-term time frame. For this example, that means until the uptrend on the 15-minute chart transitions to a sideways market or reverses the uptrend, the 240-minute time frame will not exhaust and follow through lower.
The previous high circle to the left on the 15-minute chart at 1.0597 shows that selling pressure is building just below the major psychological level at 1.0600. This could indicate that a 240-minute swing short entered between 1.0577 to 1.0575 (the 34 period EMA low) will be expected to possibly take heat about 20 to 25 pips higher from the entry. Until the 15-minute slows the uptrend, I would recommend being cautious about taking a swing short on a longer timeframe. If the 1.0597 high can hold his resistance selling pressure for the near-term will be confirmed.
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