FOREX: US Dollar Outlook Hinges on Nonfarm Payrolls Outcome

Talking Points

Currency markets were in a holding pattern overnight, with traders digging in their heels ahead of the upcoming US Employment report. Expectations call for the world’s top economy to add 105,000 jobs in June, rebounding after a dismal showing the previous month. Expectations are running high after a preliminary report from ADP trumped expectations to yield a 157k increase where economists expected a narrower 70K gain over the same period.

The report promises to be a pivotal moment for market-wide sentiment. Recent weeks have noticed a conspicuous divergence in leading economic data from the world’s leading engines of growth. Leading manufacturing- and service-sector indicators from China, Europe (both the UK and the Euro Zone) as well as Japan pointed to slowing performance on tap for the second half of the year, but analogous figures from the US surprised with robust outcomes.

As such, continuity of the global post-Great Recession economic recovery now appears to rest solely on the North American giant, with a would-be pickup in jobs growth promising to boost confidence. Such an outcome is likely to weigh heavily on the safe-haven US Dollar while boosting its sentiment-sensitive counterparts, and vice versa. The Japanese Yen is a notable exception, with USDJPY likely to advance with bond yields as an upswing in risk appetite boosts stocks while pushing Treasury prices lower.

The European data docket is relatively lackluster. UK Producer Price Index figures are expected to show wholesale inflation accelerated to an annual clip of 5.5 percent, but the outcome is unlikely to draw lasting attention considering the apparent determination of the Bank of England to maintain existing monetary policy on hold for the foreseeable future. Germany’s Trade Balance surplus is forecast to widen as exports rebound in May, but this is arguably old news after last week’s timelier and acutely disappointing June manufacturing PMI results.

Asia Session: What Happened

Euro Session: What to Expect

Critical Levels

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