European Market Update: Corrective phase summarizes session

***Economic Data***
– (IN) India Aug Industrial Production Y/Y: 5.6% v 9.5%e
– (GE) Germany Sept Final Consumer Price Index M/M: -0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.3%e
– (GE) Germany Sept Final CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.2% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.3%e
– (GE) Germany Sept Wholesale Price Index M/M: 1.0% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 7.6% v 6.3%e
– (FR) France Aug Current Account: -€4.0B v -€2.2B prior
– (HU) Hungary Sept Consumer Prices M/M: -0.1% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 3.8% v 3.9%e
– (SW) Sweden Sept CPI Headline M/M: 0.8% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.3%e; CPI Level: 304.60 v 304.72e
– (SW) Sweden Sept CPI Underlying M/M: 0.8% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.7%e
– (NE) Netherlands Aug Trade Balance: €3.0 v €3.1B prior
– (UK) Aug DCLG House Prices Y/Y: 8.3% v 8.1%e
– (UK) Sept CPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 3.1% v 3.1%e; Core CPI Y/Y: 2.7% v 2.6%e
– (UK) Sept RPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 4.6% v 4.4%e; RPI Ex Mortages Y/Y: 4.6% v 4.4%e
– (UK) Aug Visible Trade Balance: -£8.2B v -£8.1Be; Total Trade Balance: -£4.6B v -£4.4Be; Trade Balance Non EU: -£4.7B v -£4.4Be

Fixed income:
– (NE) Netherlands Debt Agency sold €1.815B in 3.75% 2042 DSLs; avg yield 2.913%
– (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total €6.5B vs €6.5B indicated in 12-month Bills; avg yield 1.441% v 1.428% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.16x v 1.90 prior
– (GR) Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) sold €1.17B in 26-week Bills; avg yield 4.54% v 4.82% prior; Bid-to-cover: 4.22x v 4.54x prior
– (SA) South Africa sold total ZAR2.1B in R207 and R213 Bonds
– (HU) Hungary sold HUF40B vs. HUF40B targeted in 3-Month Bills; avg yield 5.24% v 5.28% prior
– (BE) Belgium Debt Agency sold approx €2.8B in 3-month and 12-month Bills
– Sold €804M in 3-month Bills; avg yield 0.593% v 0.563% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.38x v 4.46x prior
– Sold €2.0B in 12-month Bills; avg yield 0.910% v 0.760% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.03x v 2.12x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM **
Notes/Observations:
– Corrective price action overall theme in session
– China’s FX regulator: China’s warning that it may have to curb hot money flows
– German reiterates its opposition towards extending Greece’s repayment schedule

Equities:
– FTSE100 -0.86% at 5623.70, CAC40 -0.51% at 6277, CAC40 -1.25% at 3722, EuroStoxx -0.90% at 2764

– European shares fell at the open and remained in negative territory throughout the session following Asian decline. Following a correction in technicals, commodities prices and miners declined after their recent rally, depressing markets further. German steelmaker Salzgitter fell as Posco cut its guidance. Bankers were also lower denoting a weaker risk appetite. Traders are awaiting FOMC minutes today from which they expect to gauge the likelihood of new QE in November.
– Belgium bank Dexia [DEXB.BE] opened down 1% following its investor update where the company set long-term targets and announced it would focus more on retail banking, especially in the fast-growing Turkish market.
– Beverages distributor C&C group [GCC.IR] reported a strong increase in revenue and operating profit on a yearly basis and affirmed that its EBIT outlook was in line with market consensus. Company remained appropriately cautious in the outlook. Shares are trading higher by 1.5%
– Soco International [SIA.UK] fell 17% after announcing that its Te Giac Den appraisal well, TGD-2X, would be plugged and abandoned.
– Safran [SAF.FR] fell -2.4% at the open following news that Areva would sell 15.4M shares bringing its stake to 1.99%
Swiss pharmaceutical Roche [ROG.SZ] traded down after a research report that AVASTIN is effective in women with ovarian cancer, but the impact of the drug peaks at 12 months.

Speakers:
– Germany Finance Ministry reiterated its opposition towards extending Greece’s repayment schedule of its current three-year €110B EU/IMF rescue package that was approves last May
– ECB’s Noyer commented that massive direct interventions in bond markets needed to be exceptional. He added that the market problems seen back in May had potentially disastrous consequences butcentral banks’ role of buyer of last resort might not extend to insolvent issuers. Central banks needed efficient markets to fulfill mandates
– BoE Miles: Risks of tightening policy are too tight and too slow. Credit supply for both business and households continued to be seriously hampered he noted that in normal economic times the upturn in data would suggest removing of easing policy but this did not feel like a typical recovery. UK Inflation was uncomfortable above the target and the Jan 2011 VAT increase to keep this trend intact longer. There was a risk in not doing enough to bring down inflation but CPI could either be appreciably above or below the CPI target in a few years time. Quantitative easing (QE) remains a potentially powerful tool
– Swedish Govt provided updated budget outlook since winning an election last month. Back on Sept 19th the government coalition won the election but lost its parliament majority. The gov’t revised its 2010 budget deficit at -1.3% v -1.1% prior view and announced SEK13B Reforms. The gov’t stated that revenues would not overtake 20008 levels until 2011 but the sale of its shareholding to improve budget balance by SEK25B annually. It did note that the Swedish economic recovery was broad and fast and the country emerged in better shape compare to others.
– Japan Business Assoc Head: Yen extremely high given the country’s economic situation
– Hungary PM reiterated that the country would keep 2010 budget deficit target of 3.8%, 2011 deficit to conform with EU’s 3% ceiling
– IEA’s Tanaka reiterated that a delay to new offshore deep water drilling projects might have significant impact on oil market

Currencies: USD continued to retrace its recent losses and hit one-week high against the major European currencies. The JPY currency maintained its firm tone up against the majors despite the renewed verbal intervention by Japanese authorities. The current retracement mode began on Monday after the China PBoC indicated it would again raise the Reserve Requirement ratio for the six largest commercial banks by 50bps to 17.50%. Germany Finance Ministry continue to voice its opposition in any extension of the current three-year €110B Greek rescue repayment schedule. EUR/USD tested below the 1.38 level while the GBP/USD dipped below the 1.58 handle following its Trade balance and CPI data. BOE member Miles express dovish sentiments and stated that Quantitative easing (QE) remained a potentially powerful tool. USD/CHF over 150 pips from its all-time lows made last week and tested the 0.97 level.

Geopolitical/ In the papers:
– In the Wall Street Journal, it was reported that Ireland is under pressure to end its low corporate tax policy. Currently its corporate tax rate of 12.5% is the lowest in the euro region, excluding of Bulgaria and Cyprus. Note that on the 1st of October, the Irish Finance Ministry expects corporate tax rates to remain unchanged despite current fiscal situation.
– According to Raffeisen, Hungary requires a solid 2011 budget in order to improve confidence in the market. Earlier during the month, the Hungarian Economic Ministry stated that the 2011 Draft Budget will not contain any austerity measures, and that it would be less than 4% deficit. The official budget is to be submitted to the cabinet by 15th of October.
– British Investor Sir Philip Green commented that the interest rates in the UK may remain near record low levels for the next two years. He was cautious on the outlook for the UK consumer.

***Looking Ahead ***
– 7:00 (SA) South Africa Aug Manufacturing Production M/M: No est v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: No est v 7.5% prior
– 7:00 (EU) ECB to drain €63.5B in 7-day term Deposit tender
– 7:30 (US) Sept NFIB Small Business Optimism: No est v 88.8 prior
– 7:45 (US) ICSC Retail Sales
– 8:00 (IC) Iceland Sept Unemployment Rate: No est v 7.3% prior
– 8:00 (PD) Poland Aug Current Account: -€1.2Be v -€1.5B prior; Trade Balance: -€689Me v -€865M prior
– 8:55 (US) Redbook Retail sales
– 10:00 (US) Oct IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism: No est v 45.3 prior
– 10:00 (MX) Mexico Aug Industrial Production Y/Y: No est v 5.4% prior
– (BR) 2010 Brazil Fall Summit
– 11:45 (US) Fed’s Hoenig to Speak at NABE in Denver on U.S. Economy
– 12:20 (EU) ECB’s Trichet Speaking in New York
– 13:00 (US) Treasury to Sell 3-Year Notes
– 14:00 Minutes of Sept 21st FOMC Meeting
– 17:00 (US) ABC Consumer Confidence w/e Oct 10th: No est v -47 prior
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October 11th, 2010 in Forex News

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